A COVID-19 e o conhecimento científico
Um olhar a partir da África subsariana
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53282/sulsul.v2i01.828Palavras-chave:
COVID-19; África; conhecimento científico; rigor conceptual; modelagemResumo
O artigo analisa a produção do conhecimento sobre a COVID-19 a partir das projeções sobre as tendências desta pandemia na África subsariana. Uma das projeções mais conhecidas e mediáticas foi feita pelo Imperial College London (ICL). A evolução da pandemia da COVID-19 na África subsaariana é consistente com as projeções do ICL. Todavia tem constituído, até ao presente, uma surpresa inexplicável o facto dos sistemas de saúde da região subsariana, considerados frágeis não terem colapsado. Paradoxalmente, tem sido entre os países do Norte Global, portanto, entre as sociedades que tem os meios e a capacidade institucional e de infraestruturas sanitárias que a pandemia da COVID-19 tem sido catastrófica. A análise feita sugere que a principal lacuna da projeção do ICL no contexto da África subsariana está associada ao facto ter por fundamento um quadro conceptual e analítico eurocêntrico. Sabe-se que na análise social os conceitos são sensíveis a estrutura social. Consequentemente, embora a projeção do ICL seja robusta em termos metodológicos a sua fraqueza conceptual se faz notar nas discrepâncias entre os dados projetados e os dados observados na África Subsariana. Recomenda-se, portanto, que apesar das conhecidas limitações em modelar os fenómenos sociais, os esforços nesse sentido devem privilegiar o rigor conceptual no mesmo grau que se privilegia a mensuração e a consistência matemática da modelagem.
Downloads
Referências
AMINNEJAD, Reza; Rosa ALIKHANI. Physical distancing or social distancing: that is the question. Canadian Journal of Anesthesia/Journal canadiend'anesthésie, 67, p.1457-1458, 2020.
CABORE, Joseph Waogodo et al.. The potential effects of widespread community transmission o SARS-CoV-2 infection in the WHO African Region: a predictive model. Brazzaville, Organização Mundial da Saúde, Escritório Regional para a África, Maio de 2020. Publicado posteriormente no: BMJ Global Health 2020; 5:002647. In: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002647.Acesso em: 20 jul. 2020.
CALDWELL, John C. Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory. Population and Development Review, 2(3/4), 231–366,1976. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1971615. Acesso em: 03 jan.2021
CALDWELL, John; CALDWELL, Pat. The Cultural Context of High Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 13(3), 409–437. 1987. Disponível em: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1973133. Acesso em: 03 jan.2021
CALDWELL, John. C;CALDWELL, Pat. (1987). Retrieved from Cinelli, Matteo, Walter Quattrociocchi, Alessandro Galeazzi, Carlo Michele Valensise, Emanuele Brugnoli, Ana Lucia Schmidt, Paola Zola, Fabiana Zollo, andAntonioScala (2020). The COVID-19 social media infodemic. Scientific Reports 10, no. 1 (2020): 1-10. arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.05004.
CUCINOTTA, Domenico; VANELLI, Maurizio. WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic. Atenei Parmensis 91, n. 1, p. 157, 2020. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.23750/abm.v91i1.9397. Acesso em: 01 fev.2021.
DE CARVALHO, Jackson; CHIMA, Felix O. Applications of structural equation modeling in social sciences research. American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 4(1), 6-11.2014.
ESCOBAR, Arturo . La invención del Tercer Mundo: construcción y deconstrucción del desarrollo. Editorial Norma.1998.
FROST, Isabel et al. COVID-19 in East Africa: National Projections of Total and Severe Infections Under Different Lockdown Scenarios. Washington, Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, 20 de Maio de 2020. In: https://cddep. org/wpcontent/uploads/2020/07/East-Africa-1.pdf.
GREENHALGH, Susan. The social construction of population science: An intellectual, institutional, and political history of twentieth-century demography. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 38(1), 26–66, 1996.
HARTMANN, Wesley R et al. Modelling social interactions: Identification, empirical methods and policy implications. Marketing letters, 19(3), 287-304, 2008.
HEDSTRÖM, Peter. (2005). Dissecting the social: On the principles of analytical sociology. Cambridge University Press
HEDSTRÖM, Peter. Explaining social change: An analytical approach. Papers: Revista de Sociologia, 80, 73–95. 2006. Disponível em: https://www.raco.cat/index.php/. Acesso em: 03 jan.2021
HEDSTRÖM, Peter., &Swedberg, Richard. (1998). Social mechanisms: An introductory Essay. Social mechanisms: An analytical approach to social theory, 1-31, 1998.
ICAZA, Rosalba; VÁZQUEZ, Rolando. Social struggles as epistemic struggles. Development and Change, 44(3), 683-704, 2013.
IMPERIAL College Response Team. (2020a). Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. Imperial College London Reports. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/. Acesso em: 01 fev.2021.
IMPERIAl College Response Team. . Report 18: The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.2020b. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/. Acesso em: 01 fev. 2021.
IMPERIAL College Response Team. (2020c). Report 19: The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Imperial College London Reports. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/. Acesso em: 01 fev. 2021.
IMPERIAL College Response Team. . Report 22: Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries.2020d. Imperial College London Reports. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/ Acesso em: 01 fev. 2021.
LESTHAEGHE, Ron;SURKYN, Johan. Cultural dynamics and economic theories of fertility change. Population and Development Review. 1-45, 1988. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972499. Acesso em: 01 fev. 2021.
LESTHAEGHE, Ron J. Reproduction and social organization in sub-Saharan Africa (Vol. 4). Univ of California Press, 1989.
LSHTM CMMID COVID19 Working Group). Modelling projections for COVID19 epidemic in Mozambique. LSHTM, Londres, 2020.
MACAMO, Elísio. The Taming of Fate: Approaching Risk from a Social Action Perspective Case Studies from Southern Mozambique. CODESRIA, 2017.
MAKONI, M. Africa prepares for coronavirus. The Lancet, 395(10223), 483, 2020.
MARTINS, Helder F. B. . COVID-19 Morbidity and Case Fatality Rate: An Analysis of Possible Confounding Factors, 2020. Journal of Infectious Diseases & Case Reports SRC/JIDSCR-127. DOI: https://doi. org/10.47363/JIDSCR/2020
MARTINS, Helder. F. B., e Hansine, Rogers. Análise epidemiológica e demográfica da COVID-19 em África COVID-19’s epidemiologicalanddemographicanalysis in Africa Artigo Original. Anais Do Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, 19, 7–42, 2020. isponível em: https://doi.org/10.25761/anaisihmt.353. Acesso em: 01 fev.2021.
MBACKE, Cheik. Family Planning Programs and Fertility Transition in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 20(1), 188–193, 1994.
MBEMBE, Achille. (2017). Critique of Black reason. Paris: Duke University Press Books.
MOBS Laboratory, Northeastern University Boston, CIDID (Center for Inference and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases) & Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, 2020. Modelling local transmission and the burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in African countries. Boston e Seattle.
MONIÉ, Frédéric . A África subsaariana diante da pandemia de Coronavírus/COVID-19: difusão espacial, impactos e desafios. Espaço e Economia. Revista brasileira de geografia econômica, (18).2020
PREM, Kiesha et al. Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data. PLoScomputationalbiology, 13(9), e1005697, 2017.
SANTOS, Boaventura de S. Para uma sociologia das ausências e uma sociologia das emergências. Revista Crítica de CiênciasSociais, 63, p.237–280, 2002.
SANTOS, Boaventura de S. The end of the cognitive empire: The coming of age of epistemologies of the South. DukeUniversityPress. 2018.
SANTOS, Milton A urbanização desigual: a especificidade do fenômeno urbano em países subdesenvolvidos. São Paulo: Editora Vozes. 1982
SMITH, Shannon . Managing Health and Economic Priorities as the COVID-19 Pandemic Spreads through Africa. Spotlight. Africa Centre for Strategic Studies. (2020a). Disponível em: https://africacenter.org/spotlight. Acesso em 03 jan.2021
SMITH, Shannon. What the Coronavirus Means for Africa. Spotlight. Africa Centre for Strategic Studie, 2020b. Disponível em: ttps://africacenter.org/ Acesso em 03 jan.2021
STRULIK, Holger; VOLLMER, Sebastian. . The Fertility Transition Around the World-1950-2005. In Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010. Verein fürSocialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
ZAROCOSTAS, John. How to fight an infodemic. Lancet 395. No 10225 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30461-X. 2020. Acesso em: 03 jan.2021.
